Michigan : Battleground State

Electoral Votes: 17 (-1 since 2000)
2000 Results: Gore 51%, Bush 46%, Nader 2%

Recent Polls
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Kerry 50%, Bush 43%, Nader 1%, Undecided 3%
(conducted Sept. 10-13; margin of error +/- 4%)

Population: White 78.6%, Black 14.1%, Hispanic 3.3%, Asian 1.8%
Urban Population: 74.7%
Rural: 25.3%
Median Income $44,667
Unemployment: 6.5%, as of May
Forecast: Still an all important swing state, but leaning Democratic.

When traditional Democrats in suburban Detroit voted for Ronald Reagan in the ’80s, it was a huge change. Now the pendulum has swung the other way. Michigan voted for Gore by a solid five points. Michigan saw an economic boom in the ’90s, but it was small businesses and manufacturing that led the way. The past four years have been hard for those businesses too; unemployment is higher than the national average. The state is still home to a large union population, but now the members are just as likely to belong to the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees or the Service Employees International Union as the United Auto Workers. Gore won in 2000 by taking not just Detroit but other big cities like Grand Rapids, Flint, Saginaw and even Marquette on the Upper Peninsula. He narrowly won the suburbs. Bush will have to win back those voters to upset Kerry here.

Counties to Watch: Oakland, Macomb, Kalamazoo, St. Clair, Shiawassee, Isabella.

[Data Source: Time.com]